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Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.5.21

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Good Tuesday morning.

This brave, kind, curious, fierce, Hamilton-loving, hilarious, deeply intelligent young girl turns 9 today. Her mother and I could not be prouder of her and how she navigated this difficult 18 months, especially this past summer when Michelle was in the hospital. We are beyond blessed to have Ella Joyce as our daughter.

Ella Joyce Schorsch at the Richard Rodgers Theatre, September 2021.

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Gaming interests have launched a full-court press to void the new Gaming Compact, but the Seminole Tribe of Florida isn’t sitting idly by.

For weeks, the Tribe has been on offense, making the case to Floridians that the Compact is not only the law of the land but will benefit the state as much as it does the Tribe.

On Monday, the Tribe launched another ad in its statewide campaign.

Titled “What We Know,” the ad spells out — in plain English — why the Compact is a good deal for the state.

“Here’s what we know: The new Seminole Tribe Compact is now in effect across Florida. It guarantees billions for the state, thousands of new jobs and soon, Florida-controlled sports betting,” says the ad’s star from a Florida ranch.

The key points are emphasized with big, bold text noting the compact guarantees $2.5 billion in payments to the state, and that sports betting is on the way.

“All sides pulled together to pass this law so outsiders couldn’t take our money out-of-state,” the actor concludes.

The ad hit the airwaves Monday.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

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U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio is currently favored for reelection next year, whether his Democratic challenger is U.S. Rep. Val Demings or former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson.

A new survey from VCreek found Rubio with a four-point edge over Demings in a hypothetical head-to-head, 42%-38%. His advantage triples to 44%-32% when Grayson, who served two nonconsecutive terms in the House, is subbed in as the Democratic nominee.

Still, the Americas PAC-commissioned poll shows many Floridians are undecided a year out from Election Day, especially for a household name like Rubio, who was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2010.

By comparison, the number of undecideds this far out from U.S. Sen. Rick Scott’s successful challenge to Bill Nelson was in the mid to low single digits. VCreek also notes that Rubio secured 48.9% of the vote in 2010 and 52% in 2016.

So far, Marco Rubio is favored for reelection.

“This frame of reference indicates Rubio’s base has slipped through the political turbulence of the past few years and COVID-19,” the polling memo says.

As it stands, 15% of voters say they would be on the fence if Demings wins the nomination. Another 5% say they’d vote for someone else. One in seven voters aren’t sure who they’d vote for if Grayson wins the nomination, but the number of voters who would vote for someone else doubles to 10%.

Most troubling for Grayson’s bid is his weak support among so-called “Regular Blue” voters, nearly 30% of whom say he wouldn’t get their vote. Only about 10% of moderate Democrats will defect if Demings is the nominee. Both candidates fare well among Strong Blue voters.

VCreek said Rubio’s success hinges on whether he can solidify his position with “Regular Red” and “Purple” voters — he already has “Strong Red” voters on lock, with about 80% support against Demings and 85% against Grayson.

The poll also found that voters believe that the Joe Biden White House should not create a vaccine mandate that could result in unvaccinated people being fired from their jobs. The split was 54%-43%, indicating it could be a drag on the eventual Democratic nominee.

The VCreek poll has a sample size of 405 likely voters. It was conducted Sept. 23-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.87 percentage points.

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Jimmy Patronis joins 2021 Future of Florida Forum speaker list” via Drew Wilson of Florida Politics — Chief Financial Officer Patronis has joined the slate of 80-plus speakers on tap for the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s 2021 Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum, scheduled for Oct. 27-28 at the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress Orlando. The Panama City Republican will lead a discussion titled “Florida is for Winners.” The substance will focus on growing Florida’s economy by protecting tax dollars, fighting fraud, and supporting small businesses and first responders. Patronis is the fourth top-level elected official confirmed for the Forum. The Chamber previously announced a discussion led by Gov. Ron DeSantis, Attorney General Ashley Moody and Senate President Wilton Simpson.

Register online here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

@MichaelGWaltz: As I said when we abandoned our Afghan allies, I would be terrified if I were Taiwan or Ukraine right now. This is what a lack of American strength and leadership in the world looks like: instability and potentially, war.

@GwenGraham: Cancer has touched so many families, including my own. My grandmother passed away from breast cancer. My husband continues his fight with prostate cancer. Very sad news to hear that Casey DeSantis is now in the fight as well. Sending all healing prayers.

@NickIarossi: Praying for and thinking of @FLCaseyDeSantis and the First Family. This is yet another challenge she will successfully handle with the strength, fortitude, and grace she demonstrates in every aspect of her life.

@NAlvarezWFTV: Above all, she is a mom. And yet another woman now in the fight. Sending strength to @FLCaseyDeSantis. Remember, 1 in 8 women will face this. Early detection is crucial.

@DaveWeigel: My number one rule, which I ripped off from @davidfrum, is that to an ordinary person, politics is as baffling as football is to a non-fan. Never ever assume that voters will understand a complicated fight. They’ll tune it out and say, “those clowns are at it again.”

@DonaldJTrumpJr: Strange that hours after a whistleblower calls out Facebook saying they engaged in a “betrayal of democracy” that Facebook and other companies it owns are totally down. I’m sure it’s a coincidence.

@chreyesrios: Facebook et al. being down means in one day we lost communication with specific friend groups, yearslong conversation threads, troves of photos/videos/audio uploaded to the apps, easy access to news and holy fuck — why did we allow one company to have so much power???

@auraabogado: The repercussions of WhatsApp being down in The Rest of The World are vast and devastating. It’s like the equivalent of your phone and the phones of all of your loved ones being turned off without warning. The app essentially functions as an unregulated utility.

— DAYS UNTIL —

’No Time to Die’ premieres — 3; ’Succession’ returns — 13; ’Dune’ premieres — 17; ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’ returns — 19; World Series Game 1 — 21; Florida Chamber Future of Florida Forum begins — 22; Florida TaxWatch’s…

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